Intended and Unintended Effects of
E-cigarette Taxes on Youth Tobacco Use
Rahi Abouk, Charles Courtemanche, Dhaval Dave, Bo Feng,
Michael F. Pesko, Joseph J. Sabia,
and Samuel Safford
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View Prior Working Paper Versions in
Over the past decade, rising youth use of
e-cigarettes and other electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) has contributed to aggressive regulation by state and local governments. Between 2010 and mid-2019, ten states and two large counties adopted ENDS taxes. We use two large national surveys (Monitoring the Future and the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System) to estimate the impact of ENDS taxes on youth tobacco use. We find that ENDS taxes reduce youth ENDS consumption, with estimated ENDS tax elasticities of -0.06 to -0.21. However, we estimate sizable positive cigarette cross-tax effects, suggesting economic substitution between cigarettes and ENDS for youth. These substitution effects are particularly large for frequent cigarette smoking. We conclude that the unintended effects of ENDS taxation may considerably undercut or even outweigh any public health gains.
Media Coverage
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Global News, May 19, 2024, "Vaping in Canada may cost more as of July 1. Here’s why"
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Vaping Post, February 10, 2023, "Hawaii Lawmakers Propose a 70% Tax Rate on Vaping Products"
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NBER Bulletin on Health, October 28, 2021, "The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Tobacco Taxation"
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Washington Examiner, September 10, 2021, "Taxing e-cigarettes could have adverse consequences"
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