Strong Social Distancing Measures in the United States Reduced the COVID-19 Growth Rate
View Published Article in
State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April 2020 to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These measures included bans on large social gatherings; school closures; closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas; and shelter-in-place orders. We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020. An event study design allowed each policy’s impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases by 5.4 percentage points after one to five days, 6.8 percentage points after six to ten days, 8.2 percentage points after eleven to fifteen days, and 9.1 percentage points after sixteen to twenty days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply that there would have been ten times greater spread of COVID-19 by April 27 without shelter-in-place orders (ten million cases) and more than thirty-five times greater spread without any of the four measures (thirty-five million cases). Our article illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing information relevant to strategies for restarting economic activity.
Media Coverage
​
​
​
Poynter, June 9, 2021, "Some journalism conventions plan to meet in person this year"
​
RealClearMarkets, June 5, 2021, "Believe Your Own Eyes About Fauci E-Mails, Not the Fact Checkers"
​
​
​
Vox, April 6, 2021, "New data disproves a big concern about Covid-19 lockdowns"
​
FactCheck.org, March 19, 2021, "Posts Distort CDC Study Supporting Mask Mandates to Reduce
​
​
​
​
NPR, January 31, 2021, "Did Closing Schools Save Lives Or Cost Lives? The Debate Continues"
​
MedPage Today, January 16, 2021, "Schooling Under the COVID Cloud"
​
​
​
The Conversation, December 9, 2020, "Can gyms be a safe environment during the pandemic?"
​
​
NPR, November 24, 2020, "How Do We Stop This Surge? Here's What Experts Say Could Help"
​
Vox, November 18, 2020, "The next Covid-19 superspreading event: Thanksgiving"
​
Vox, November 16, 2020, "America needs to close down"
​
​
​
​
Vox, October 7, 2020, "How Mike Pence enabled Donald Trump’s botched Covid-19 response"
​
Vox, September 14, 2020, "Why Covid-19 case numbers are falling in the US"
​
Popular Science, August 13, 2020, "Social distancing saves lives. Here’s the proof."
​
​
Vox, August 11, 2020, "America’s uniquely bad Covid-19 epidemic, explained in 18 maps and charts"
​
Reason, August 7, 2020, "COVID-19 and the Tragedy of the Open Access Health Commons"
​
Vox, July 30, 2020, "San Francisco’s lonely war against Covid-19"
​
​
​
Lab Manager, July 10, 2020, "Could Self-Isolation Make You More Vulnerable to COVID-19?"
​
Vox, July 9, 2020, "I'm an epidemiologist and a dad. Here’s why I think schools should reopen."
​
Vox, July 8, 2020, "Why Arizona is suffering the worst Covid-19 outbreak in the US"
​
The Owensboro Times, June 27, 2020, "Experts: Physical distance, masks must become the 'norm'"
​
Vox, June 27, 2020, "The US’s new surge in coronavirus cases, explained"
​
Vox, June 9, 2020, "2 new studies show shutdowns were astonishingly effective"
​
​
Univision, June 1, 2020, "Recent protests and COVID-19 spread"
​
New York Magazine, May 27, 2020, "Here’s the Latest Good (and Bad) News About the Coronavirus"
​
The New York Times, May 24, 2020, "The Most Patriotic Thing You Can Do Right Now"
​
National Review, May 22, 2020, "Did the Lockdowns Work?"
​
​
​
​
Inverse, May 20, 2020, "When will social distancing end? The 3 major risks of reopening too soon"
​
​
The New York Times, May 20, 2020, "All 50 States Are Now Reopening. But at What Cost?"
​
The New York Times, May 20, 2020, "Let’s Remember That the Coronavirus Is Still a Mystery"
​
​
​
​
​
​
CNN, May 18, 2020, "The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer: The risks of reopening"
​
Mother Jones, May 18, 2020, "School Closure vs. Restaurant Closure: Which Is Most Effective?"
​
Univision, May 18, 2020, "Areas without social distancing have 35 times more potential of spread"
​
Vox, May 18, 2020, "Lockdowns worked. Now what?"
​
​
​
​
HealthLeaders, May 15, 2020, "Social Distancing Strategies Dramatically Reduced Coronavirus Spread"
​
The Hill, May 15, 2020, "Areas that fail to social distance face 35 times more virus cases, study suggests"
​
​
MedPage Today, May 15, 2020, "Stay-at-Home Orders Tied to Slower Rate of COVID-19 Cases"
Medscape Medical News, May 15, 2020, "Stay-at-Home Orders Correlated With Slower COVID-19 Spread"
​
NBC News, May 15, 2020, "Nearly 3 million more Americans file jobless claims"
​
Spectrum News 1, May 15, 2020, "UK Study Finds Aggressive Response to COVID-19 Helped Kentuckians"
​
​
​
​
​