The Effects of Traditional Cigarette and
E-Cigarette
Tax Rates on
Adult Tobacco Product Use
View Published Article in
View Prior Working Paper Versions in
We study the effects of traditional cigarette and
e-cigarette taxes on use of these products among adults in the United States. Data are drawn from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey over the period 2011 to 2018. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find evidence that higher traditional cigarette tax rates reduce adult traditional cigarette use and increase adult e-cigarette use. Similarly, we find that higher e-cigarette tax rates increase traditional cigarette use and reduce e-cigarette use. Cross-tax effects imply that the products are economic substitutes. Our results suggest that a proposed national e-cigarette tax of $1.65 per milliliter of vaping liquid would raise the proportion of adults who smoke cigarettes daily by approximately 1 percentage point, translating to 2.5 million extra adult daily smokers compared to the counterfactual of not having the tax.
Media Coverage
​
Vaping Post, May 26, 2023, "Science Keeps Revealing The Infectivity of Vape Taxes"
​
Vaping Post, May 11, 2023, "The Latest Vape Tax Motions in The US"
​
Vaping Post, March 8, 2023, "Alaska Senate President Introduces Bill to Tax And Restrict Vape Sales"
​
Vaping Post, January 5, 2023, "Hong Kong Public Health Expert Suggests a Raise in Tobacco Tax"
​
Vaping Post, December 6, 2022, "Australian Study: Tobacco Taxes May Lead to Increased Vaping Rates"
​
Vaping Post, May 26, 2022, "The WHO Claims That Tobacco Taxes Reduce Consumption Rates"
​
​
​
​
Medium, May 24, 2021, "The Great Vape Debate"
​
Tax Foundation, March 16, 2021, "Excise Tax Application and Trends"
​
National Review, March 10, 2021, "Don’t Ban E-Cigarette Delivery by Mail"
​
Vaping Post, January 5, 2021, "Baltimore City Leaders Propose a 30% Tax on E-cigarettes"
​
​