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The Effects of Traditional Cigarette and
E-Cigarette
Tax Rates on
Adult Tobacco Product Use

Michael F. Pesko,

Charles Courtemanche,

and Johanna Catherine Maclean

View Published Article in

View Prior Working Paper Versions in

We study the effects of traditional cigarette and

e-cigarette taxes on use of these products among adults in the United States. Data are drawn from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey over the period 2011 to 2018. Using two-way fixed effects models, we find evidence that higher traditional cigarette tax rates reduce adult traditional cigarette use and increase adult e-cigarette use. Similarly, we find that higher e-cigarette tax rates increase traditional cigarette use and reduce e-cigarette use. Cross-tax effects imply that the products are economic substitutes. Our results suggest that a proposed national e-cigarette tax of $1.65 per milliliter of vaping liquid would raise the proportion of adults who smoke cigarettes daily by approximately 1 percentage point, translating to 2.5 million extra adult daily smokers compared to the counterfactual of not having the tax.

Media Coverage

Bhekisisa Centre for Health Journalism, November 2, 2024, "Will SA’s new vaping laws lead to more smokers instead of fewer?"

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Vaping Post, May 26, 2023, "Science Keeps Revealing The Infectivity of Vape Taxes"

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Vaping Post, May 11, 2023, "The Latest Vape Tax Motions in The US"

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Vaping Post, March 8, 2023, "Alaska Senate President Introduces Bill to Tax And Restrict Vape Sales"

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Vaping Post, January 5, 2023, "Hong Kong Public Health Expert Suggests a Raise in Tobacco Tax"

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Vaping Post, December 6, 2022, "Australian Study: Tobacco Taxes May Lead to Increased Vaping Rates"

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Vaping Post, May 26, 2022, "The WHO Claims That Tobacco Taxes Reduce Consumption Rates"

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Reason, November 22, 2021, "Tax Buried in the "Build Back Better" Bill Is Likely to Increase Smoking Rates"

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The Washington Post, November 22, 2021, "Build Back Better’s e-cigarette tax will make people smoke more"

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The Wall Street Journal, November 10, 2021, "Biden’s Vaping Tax Sparks Concerns People Will Go Back to Cigarettes"

 

Tax Foundation, September 13, 2021, "House Tobacco Proposals Defy Biden’s Tax Pledge and Undermine Harm Reduction Efforts"

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Medium, May 24, 2021, "The Great Vape Debate"

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Tax Foundation, March 16, 2021, "Excise Tax Application and Trends"

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National Review, March 10, 2021, "Don’t Ban E-Cigarette Delivery by Mail"

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Vaping Post, January 5, 2021, "Baltimore City Leaders Propose a 30% Tax on E-cigarettes"

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MarketWatch, August 28, 2019, "Former smokers are picking up some terrible habits that pose major health risks"

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MarketWatch, July 4, 2019, "People are ditching cigarettes for vaping for reasons other than their health"

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